Colorado Demographics - From 5 to 7.3 million - in 20 years

Economists love crunching numbers, so it seemed like a good time to get a few out there for discussion. The implications for Denver and for the State of Colorado could fill a few books, so in this post I’m just putting up the numbers and references from the DOLA fact sheet. The demographic statistics contained here are conveniently available from the Colorado State Demography Office at: http://www.dola.state.co.us/dlg/demog/components.html

In future posts I will refer back to these numbers and URLs as a shorthand reference for discussion purposes.

The population of Colorado was estimated to have reached 5 million in June of 2008. Colorado’s population has been growing at 2% per year since 2005 which translates to between 92-95,000 new residents each year. Colorado’s recent growth is the result approximately 40,000 in natural increase (births minus deaths) and 55,000 in net migration. Growth in the state varies dramatically by county with some counties growing as fast as 5.9% per year and other counties losing population.

Denver, Colorado’s most populated county, was estimated to have a population of 593,000 in July of 2007. The seven county (Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson) metropolitan area population is estimated at 2.7 million and is home to 55% of Colorado’s population. Denver and the metro area have been growing around 2% per year since 2005. However, Douglas County in the southern metro area is Colorado’s fastest growing county reaching annual average growth rates above 6% since
the mid 1990s. www.dola.state.co.us/dlg/demog/pop_colo_estimates.html

Colorado is forecast to grow to 6.2 million by 2020 and 7.3 million by 2030 (see forecasts www.dola.state.co.us/dlg/demog/pop_colo_forecasts.html) This translates to an annual average growth rate of 2.0 through 2010 slowing slightly to 1.9 percent per year through 2020 and then 1.5 percent per year through 2030.

The Western Slope continues to be the fastest growing region in the state with expected annual growth rates averaging 2.8% between 2005 and 2010. This is compared to the 1.9% growth rate expected statewide. The North Front Range and Central Mountains are also expected to have above average growth rates, while the Eastern Plains and San Luis Valley are expected to continue growing at rates near 1% (similar to the Nation).

Denver County is forecast to grow to 606,000 by 2010 and 660,000 by 2020, an annual average rate of approximately .9% which is slower than the state rate. The entire Denver Metropolitan area is forecast to grow to 2.8 million by 2010 and 3.3 million by 2020, an annual average growth rate of 1.6%, slightly lower than the growth rate expected statewide.

The largest single factor affecting the demographic trends in Colorado is the aging of the “Baby Boomers” (those born between 1946 and 1964)
Between 2000 and 2010, Colorado’s population 55 – 64 will grow at 5.9% per year vs. 3.9% for this U.S. age group, and 1.8% for Colorado total population, increasing by over 75% from 342,000 in 2000 to 607,000 in 2010.

Between 2000 and 2030 the population over 65 is forecast to triple from 400,000 to 1.2 million.